Tipping the biosphere

My previous posts have described how critical transitions lead to state shifts, causing abrupt changes and unanticipated effects. Although humans appear to dominate Earth, we have a huge dependence on the biosphere and ecosystem functioning for resource capture, primary production, and decomposition and recycling of nutrients, as well as potentially ecosystem stability (Cardinale et al, 2012). If the relationships mentioned by Cardinale et al (2012) transpose to a planetary scale, the implication is that global biodiversity and species richness positively correlate with the resilience and functioning of the biosphere (Lenton et al. 2013). For this reason, there has been an almost compulsory growth in interest in forecasting biological responses on all temporal and spatial scales (Barnosky et al, 2012).

But how do these changes occur?

Barnosky et al. (2012) describe biological states as neither steady nor in equilibrium, and say critical thresholds may be crossed by a ‘threshold’ effect in incremental values or a ‘sledgehammer’ effect from a large event, such as forest clearance. Localized ecological systems are known to shift abruptly and irreversibly across critical thresholds to new mean conditions outside the range of fluctuation of the previous state (Barnosky et al, 2012). Tipping points in the terrestrial biosphere can also cross continents if vegetation and atmosphere are tightly coupled, (Lenton et al. 2013), potentially becoming global if there are interrelated drivers acting on a global biological or ecological threshold, causing all locations to ‘tip’ simultaneously (Brook et al. 2013). Brook et al (2013) think this is unlikely given the heterogeneity of climate change and ecosystems. Jefferies et al. (2006) show that intercontinental biotic connectivity and coupled regime shifts have been demonstrated by intensive agriculture in western USA, causing dramatic losses of Arctic ecosystem structure and biogeochemical cycling due to increased populations of migrating snow geese, promoted by agricultural crop as increased food source. Similarly, coral reef ecosystems appear to have disappeared globally and suddenly at the Triassic–Jurassic transition, driven by global increase in CO2 causing increased ocean acidity and temperature (Brook et al. 2013).

What are the consequences?

Several extinction events have been linked to oceanic anoxic events, crossing the tipping point in which the onset of anoxia on shelf seas triggered is phosphorus recycling from sediments, fuelling a spread of anoxia, and Lenton et al. (2013) state that the effects on biodiversity were a consequence rather than an intrinsic part of the tipping mechanism. As well as this may be, feedback loops often mean that a biological forcing applied on one scale can cause a critical transition to occur on another scale, for example, anthropogenic selection for younger maturation of individual cod as a result of heavy fishing pressure; and cascades of ecological changes triggered by the removal of top predators (Barnosky et al. 2012). Lenton et al (2013) suggest that species richness is a poor and misleading indicator of Earth-system function, with minimal basis in ecological theory for identifying a number of unique species required to maintain the general health of the biosphere. They also point out the distinction between tipping points in climate or biogeochemical dynamics and subsequent ecological responses to them (Lenton et al. 2013).

To summarize, the terrestrial biosphere, in isolation, is not the right place to be looking for a planetary-scale tipping point; the complex coupled dynamics of the Earth system as a whole need to be assessed (Lenton et al, 2013). Many of the feedbacks, and their consequences for other systems and scales, in the face of changing global climate are as yet unknown. However, planetary scale critical transitions have occurred previously in the biosphere, and evidence suggests that humans are now forcing another such transition, potentially transforming Earth into an irreversible state unknown in human history (Barnosky et al. 2012). As Hobbs et al. (2006) suggest, ‘we should perhaps move away from the one-dimensional dichotomy between natural and human dominated to a more effective depiction of how human beings interact with nature’.

Barnosky et al. (2012) “Approaching a state shift in Earth’s Biosphere”, Nature, 486, 52-58
Brook, B.W. et al. (2013) "Does the terrestrial biosphere have planetary tipping points?" Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 28, 396–401.

Cardinale, B.J. et al. (2012) "Biodiversity loss and its impact on humanity". Nature 486, 59–67
Hobbs, R.J. et al. (2006) "Novel ecosystems: theoretical and management aspects of the new ecological world order". Global Ecology and Biogeography. 15, 1–7

Jefferies, R.L. et al. (2006) "A biotic agent promotes large-scale catastrophic change in the coastal marshes of Hudson Bay". Journal of Ecology. 94, 234–242

Lenton, T., M., and H. T. P. Williams (2013) “On the origin of planetary-scale tipping points, Trends in Ecology & Evolution, 28, 7, 380-382

Pointing to the big picture.

Tasked with keeping a blog for 3 months for my 3rd year module in Global Environmental Change at UCL, I came home with a world of ideas. I told my boyfriend that I'd decided to write about climate tipping points. 

That's great, he said…what are “tipping points”? 

At this I paused, gave a vague description with a few strange analogies about burning your toast, and silently vowed to find a some good articles that would categorically sum up tipping points, for me and for my audience. 

Now, this proved much more difficult than expected. Although I knew about tipping points in Earth’s climate system, I had never considered that they existed elsewhere. As it turns out, ANYTHING that is in the slightest bit dynamic has a so called “tipping point”: fashion, make-up, the economy, sport, there’s even a Tipping Points game show in which contestants play with a giant arcade-style coin pusher (yes I watched it . . . it’s nail-biting). What shocked me most was that climate tipping points didn't dominate the primitive Google search, despite potentially being one of the most daunting and difficult factors in global climate change past, present and future.

TIPPING POINTS are thresholds beyond which dramatic changes in conditions with considerable and largely unpredictable consequences occur. It only takes a small change to make a huge difference; Lenton says “A climate ‘tipping point’ occurs when a small change in forcing triggers a strongly nonlinear response . . . qualitatively changing its future state”. They've happened before, pushing the Earth in and out of Ice Ages, but these have all been natural, caused by solar variability and a chain of events, such as melting permafrost and icesheets. This time, the Anthropocene threatens a new era of climate change, comparable with previous global mass extinctions. The editorial from Nature Climate Change Vol. 1 says “An early warning of Earth tipping points will bring us closer to staving off abrupt climate change, but a societal tipping point is needed to achieve sustainability”. 

Tipping points MUST be considered by policy makers, scientists and the general public worldwide in order for the issue to be addressed and acted upon.

Image from xkcd.com, source of data for image Dyke, A. et al, 2002. "The Laurentide and Innuitian Ice Sheets During the Last Glacial Maximum"