As discussed in previous posts, tipping
points are a concern for scientists and policy-makers due to the threat they
pose to natural resources, ecosystem services and human well-being (Werners et
al. 2013). Societies and economies across the globe are reliant on climate and ecosystem
services in order for their current success, and also for that of future
generations (Folke, C. 2006). Despite our dependence on natural resources,
uncontrolled usage amongst other factors has depleted resources, whilst changing the composition of
the atmosphere through emissions of greenhouse gases and enhancing global climate change. Climate change is only one
of the challenges the global community faces today in terms of continuing
development at a sustainable rate.
Werners
et al. (2013) state that “climate change shifts the challenge for
sustainability from preserving natural resources for future generations to
strengthening resilience and adaptive capacity in social–ecological systems”.
This means that policy making and resources management must change from a conservation
basis to one that manages change and adaptation (Werners et al. 2013). Thresholds
and tipping points, along with their properties and mechanisms, are important points
for sustainability science, and their uncertainty is a big challenge when
trying to remain sustainable.
Previous posts have mentioned that some
systems have an indicator of change, if examined closely, which allows us
either to mitigate against the changes or to prevent them from occurring where
possible. Biggs et al. (2009) found that
if drivers of a system can only be manipulated gradually, action is needed much
before a regime shift in order to prevent it, but if drivers can be rapidly
altered, the action aversive action can be delayed until a shift is underway. However,
these large, noticeable increases in the indicators only tend to occur once a
regime shift has started, which is usually too late for human intervention to
avert a shift (Biggs et al. 2009). Huntington et al. (2012) out into
perspective the challenge we face and what it means for the average human: “rapid
sea level rise, for example from accelerated melting of the Greenland ice
sheet, will create a choice between protection and abandonment for coastal
regions throughout the world, a potential global tipping point” (Huntington et
al. 2012).
Climate change is a challenge that most,
if not all, governments cannot stretch to financially, and thus beyond a point,
individuals must bear the costs or adapt to new circumstances, creating
political-economic tipping points in countries everywhere (Huntington et al.
2012). The scale of the battle ahead depends largely on greenhouse gas emissions
reductions, with temperature increase being a trigger for many of the fragile Earth
systems responses. With many of the tipping points unknown, and the amplifying
feedbacks and time-lag effects in systems underestimated (Werners et al. 2013),
the challenge ahead is vast.
Biggs, R. S. R. Carpenter and W. A.
Brock (2009) “Turning back from the brink: Detecting an impending regime shift
in time to avert it” PNAS, 106, 3, 826–831
Folke, C.(2006) “Resilience: The emergence
of a perspective for social–ecological systems analyses” Global Environmental Change 16, 253–267
Huntington, H.,P., E. Goodstein and E.
Euskirchen (2012) “Towards a tipping point in responding to change: rising
costs, fewer options for Arctic and global societies” Ambio. 41, 1, 66-74
Werners, S., E., S. Pfenninger, E. van
Slobbe, M. Haasnoot, J. H Kwakkel and R. J. Swart, (2013) “Thresholds, tipping
and turning points for sustainability under climate change” Current Opinion in Environmental
Sustainability, 5, 334–340
